If Joe Biden is pushed out of the presidential race by elite Democrats, the most obvious replacement is Kamala Harris. Numerous pundits have noted that the vice president is already running ahead of Biden against Donald Trump — even before she’s had the chance to make her case.
Though I’m not in the predictions racket, I’ve been around long enough to know that D.C. experts have no idea how the electorate is going to react to a candidate. History is strewn with sure things and can’t-miss prospects. Many voters are reliable partisans. Many others are driven by intuition and emotion, not the kind of hard rationalism experts tend to assign them.
Which is to say, it’s a mistake to assume Kamala’s popularity is destined to increase after she makes her case to voters. In truth, the reverse is just as likely to happen.
In 2011, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s favorability numbers hit a historic high of 66 percent, and remained over 50 percent until the 2016 presidential campaign began in earnest. Those are better than Harris’ numbers today. By September 2018, Clinton was at 36 percent. Even among Democrats, Clinton’s favorability dropped 10 points from the start of the campaign until the election.
What happens when Harris faces a large-scale highly funded opposition campaign that launches relentless daily attacks on her? Most voters don’t know much about Harris’ record. Trump’s negatives, on the other hand, are already baked into the polls. What is Kamala going to say about the former president that Biden
