After losing all seven state abortion referendums since Roe v. Wade was overturned, pro-lifers have received another dose of bad news. In ruby-red South Dakota, a recent poll found that 53 percent of voters, including 46 percent of Republicans, support a ballot measure that would set up a trimester system for legalizing abortion (similar to Roe), while just 35 percent oppose it, a notable shift from the 46-44 advantage the pro-abortion side had in November. But pro-lifers cannot give up on this race just yet.
South Dakota may not be the most populous state, but it represents the best opportunity for a victory in the near term (along with Florida, though only because amendments need 60 percent to pass in the Sunshine State). Despite the bad poll, there are genuine reasons for optimism.
If calculated using former President Donald Trump’s vote margin in 2020 (a simplistic measure, but adequate for this analysis), South Dakota will be the reddest state yet to have an abortion referendum. Currently, that title belongs to Kentucky, which has a Trump margin of about 0.2 percent less than South Dakota. In 2022, the pro-abortion side won by about 5 points in Kentucky’s referendum, suggesting that partisanship alone will not carry the pro-life side to victory. However, Kentucky’s referendum was in a midterm year, and turnout was about 70 percent of what it was in 2020.
In a presidential year, the pro-abortion side will need an even higher proportion of voters to split their tickets to secure
