As we approach the first anniversary of the Russian military’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s becoming increasingly important for Americans to ask: Who benefits?
America’s open checkbook for Ukraine is more likely to produce a long war than a swiftly decisive outcome. Three groups favor a long war in Ukraine: Vladimir Putin, the global industrial defense complex, and China.
As long as a state of war persists in Ukraine, even at a low simmer, Putin achieves his goal: Ukraine will not be part of NATO. As President Eisenhower cautioned, an overly powerful military-industrial complex risks putting its own interests and the truth at odds with America’s interests. Finally, China has greatly benefited from the ways America has squandered the post-Cold War era. American foreign policy needs strategic depth, not the same flawed approach that has left America less free, less safe, and more burdened by debt.
Pundits and intelligence professionals have attributed a host of motives to explain Putin’s unjust invasion of Ukraine. I won’t explore them here, but they all share one common theme. Putin does not want Ukraine to become a member of NATO or part of the European Union. While a state of war persists in Ukraine, neither will happen.
Providing an expectation that America will either fight or fund another endless war risks a catastrophic failure. Moreover, since our rational objectives do diverge, it provides no incentive for Ukraine’s President Zelensky to pursue more limited objectives or alternatives to America’s blank check.
Clearly, the people who
