More than two and a half years in, the war in Ukraine has taken or crippled hundreds of thousands of lives, with no end in sight. Deep mistrust, changing prospects along the frontlines, and grinding battles like those at Vuhledar and Bakhmut all contribute to driving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin away from the negotiating table. Yet while Russia’s invasion is the fundamental cause of the conflict, both Moscow and Ukraine’s Western allies have contributed to preventing peace, sometimes intentionally, other times indirectly.
In the first few months of the war, a genuine opportunity for a swift and peaceful resolution emerged. Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met in Turkey and Belarus to discuss terms, with Kyiv exploring the idea of rejecting NATO membership and giving up some territory in exchange for multilateral security guarantees — a proposal that both sides seemed ready to agree to in principle, despite disagreements on some specifics.
Unfortunately, just as these talks were progressing, hesitant Western nations intervened. The U.S. and U.K., in particular, signaled to Ukraine that negotiating with Russia was premature — an indicator that neither nation was prepared to commit to defend Ukraine as part of a peace deal. Reports suggest then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Kyiv to communicate to Zelensky that the West was not ready for talks and urged him to push his nation to continue resisting through the promise of continued military aid. The negotiations fell apart soon after. We’ll never know if disagreements in the proposal would
