For several decades, the United States has had to navigate the tense conflict between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan. This residual dispute from the Cold War could turn hot should America abandon a tried-and-true strategy in favor of reckless hawkishness.
For over 50 years, the United States has maintained a one-China policy, which asserts there is one China of which Taiwan is part. Successive administrations from both parties maintained a “strategic ambiguity” when asked whether the United States would fight to defend Taiwan. This approach has kept the peace in the Taiwan Strait because China could never be sure if it would have to contend with America’s military might. But casual discussions on Sunday talk shows about our ability to repel the People’s Liberation Army aside, a war in the Taiwan Strait would be catastrophic.
Despite Carl von Clausewitz’s warning that “war is the realm of uncertainty,” we can be sure such a war would, at a minimum, disrupt the global economy, cost billions of dollars, and take an untold amount of lives.
Some of the world’s largest economies would clash on a global battleground. China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and all those doing business with those countries operate within the potential battle zone. More than 80 percent of the world’s largest container ships connect the global economy through the Taiwan Strait. For perspective, imagine the disruption of the Covid lockdowns and multiply it by 10.
Specific sectors of the global economy would be devastated. Taiwan is a
