A new Government Accountability Office (GAO) report estimates the total amount of Covid-era unemployment fraud at between $100 to $135 billion — from more than double to nearly triple the number cited in last year’s inspector general study.
Last October, I reported in these pages on a federal inspector general study that estimated nearly $46 billion in potentially fraudulent unemployment benefits paid out amid the Covid-19 lockdowns. The study itself, and my summary of it, noted that the $46 billion figure likely underestimated the total extent of the fraud — and boy, did it ever.
Staggering Spending, Little Recovered
The GAO report used a combination of regular state reports and statistical sampling to arrive at its overall fraud figure for Covid-era unemployment benefits. It gave particular scrutiny to the pandemic programs Congress authorized in 2020, as opposed to traditional unemployment benefits. That’s because those programs covered new populations of workers (e.g., “gig workers”) and relied upon self-certification, making them more susceptible to fraud.
Reviewing the GAO study, several elements stand out. First, the unemployment fraud number, as large as it is, represents a fraction of the total spending on this program during the lockdowns. Over the past three years, unemployment payments totaled approximately $900 billion. The new pandemic programs Congress authorized totaled $670 billion out of that $900 billion — a staggering sum in a short period, since those programs weren’t created until March 2020 then expired 18 months later in September 2021.
Second, while states have identified much potential
