The presidential campaign between Donald Trump and Joe Biden (or whatever functionary the Democrat Party will select to replace him) will obviously dominate media attention from now through Nov. 5. But arguably the second-most important outcome this fall lies far away from the media hordes in Washington.
In theory, control of the House of Representatives could fall to either party, and in theory, Democrats could retain their narrow majority in the Senate. But not if Republicans pick up a Senate seat in Montana — the likeliest place where they can recapture the majority and prevent unified Democrat control of Washington next year.
House Control on a Knife Edge
At present, Republicans control the House of Representatives by a 220-213 margin, with two seats (one by each party) vacant. Under this math, a change in four seats would allow Democrats to retake control of the House by a 218-217 tally.
Recent political race rankings make such a takeover possible, though not certain. Democrats and Republicans each have 11 seats listed as toss-ups, where neither party holds a distinct advantage. Democrats have more seats “in play” (39) than Republicans (30), meaning Republicans have more opportunities to pick up seats from the other party. However, Democrats are projected to take over two seats from Republicans (one in Alabama, one in New York) due to the effects of redistricting, meaning Democrats should theoretically have a head start on retaking the majority.
While “ticket splitters” — people who vote for one party for president and
