Recent events have underscored the urgent need for a reconsideration of America’s Iran policy. In response to constant drone attacks on American bases, which resulted in injuries to more than two dozen U.S. military personnel and one fatality, the U.S. dispatched an F-16 and F-15 to bomb weapons and ammunition storage areas in Syria connected to Iran’s chief terror arm, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
But this anemic response has not stopped Iranian aggression via its proxy forces, and will likely lead to further escalation by Iran — at a time and place of Iran’s choosing.
The United States has historically responded to such provocations with a proportional strategy driven largely by State Department fears over broadening a conflict. But merely proportional measures are insufficient. The concept of escalation dominance offers a paradigm shift in how the U.S. should approach Iran.
When President Joe Biden’s foreign policy awakes from its dilatory slumber, it either falls into a desultory rut or a destructive real-world application of an academic theory that should have stayed in the lecture hall.
Understanding Escalation Dominance
Escalation dominance is rooted in the idea that a state should possess both the capabilities and the will to control the escalation of hostilities. By controlling the pace and scope of escalation, a state can effectively deter aggression and neutralize threats. One cannot exercise escalation dominance by merely responding to symptoms or by playing a tit-for-tat game with adversaries. Real dominance requires addressing the source of the problem directly.
Consider
