On October 26, Israel struck air-defense sites and missile facilities in Iran. Under pressure from the United States, Israel limited its retaliation. Apparently seeking deescalation, the Biden-Harris administration has tried to prevent Israel from achieving a decisive victory or reestablishing deterrence since the start of this latest Middle East war.
Of course, such a policy can only lead to further escalation. Israel is sure to keep pressing the war against Iran’s proxies, which are merely tentacles of the Iranian regime itself. And Iran, having chosen this moment to get into a war with Israel, will not back down until Israel inflicts a punishment so painful that the mullahs in Tehran dare not risk another. Indeed, Iran has already signaled that it will retaliate with a “definitive and painful” response, perhaps in the coming days. Capitalizing on America’s (and Israel’s) inexplicable failure to attribute Iranian proxy attacks directly to it, Iran will likely make greater use of its militias in Iraq, thereby goading Israel into attacking Iraq while catching the few remaining U.S. troops there in a cross-fire.
Indeed, Iran’s coming escalation may have dire consequences for the United States. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently said that Iran must obtain the means of greater power and should not “refrain from obtaining means that might trigger the sensitivities of the [great] powers.” A leading Iranian parliamentarian, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, was more explicit, warning that the confrontation with Israel could make it necessary to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) altogether.
It is not a coincidence that Iran chose this
