The corporate media’s headlines from a recent Des Moines Register poll in Iowa are that Nikki Haley has caught Ron DeSantis, and that she’s on the rise while he’s falling. In truth, the poll reveals that the Hawkeye State continues to look like a two-horse race between DeSantis and the clear front-runner, Donald Trump.
Yes, Haley’s support rose from 6 percent in the prior Des Moines Register poll (taken in August) to 16 percent in this one, while support for DeSantis dipped from 19 to 16 percent. (Trump’s support rose 1 percentage point, from 42 to 43 percent.) But essentially every other indicator in the newly released polling suggests that DeSantis is Trump’s only real competition in this pivotal opening state.
When likely Iowa caucus-goers were asked to name the two candidates whom they like the most, Trump was listed as the first or second choice by 55 percent of respondents, DeSantis by 43 percent, and Haley by 33 percent. (Tim Scott was listed by 17 percent and Vivek Ramaswamy by 13 percent, with everyone else in single digits.) DeSantis was the second choice of 27 percent of respondents, compared with 17 percent for Haley. (Trump was the second choice for 12 percent of respondents, Scott for 10 percent, and Ramaswamy for 9 percent.)
The poll also found that DeSantis had higher favorability ratings among likely caucus-goers than Haley did. DeSantis’ net favorability rating was +43 points (69 percent favorable to 26 percent unfavorable), which is up from +37 in
