If you read nothing but posts from conservative influencers on X, you’d be convinced that Donald Trump has already won the 2024 election.
The source of this sensationalized optimism comes from public polling data, which shows the former president with leads in key battleground states he needs to win this November. Some surveys also seemingly indicate that traditionally “blue states” like Virginia and Minnesota are in play.
With numbers like these and Biden’s approval rating sinking faster than Rachel Levine in a swimming pool, there’s no way Trump can lose, or so the conventional thinking goes.
While it’s certainly possible the polls are accurate, the outcome of recent elections should give conservatives reason to pump the brakes on celebrating before any ballots have been cast. Case in point: A special election held in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District on Tuesday.
The matchup between Democrat Michael Kripchak and Republican Michael Rulli wasn’t expected to be a close race. According to the Associated Press, former GOP Rep. Bill Johnson — who represented the district until his resignation earlier this year — “won his last four elections by more than 30 percentage points.” Trump similarly won the district by roughly 30 points during the 2020 contest.
While Rulli defeated Kripchak in Tuesday’s matchup and expanded Republicans’ thin House majority, the election was much closer than originally predicted. Preliminary results indicate Rulli won the race by 9.4 points — a more than 20-point shift in Democrats favor.
A Consistent Trend
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