The weekend before the 2016 election, my mother called and asked, “Well? Who’s gonna win? Trump or Hillary?”
I said, “Depends. If you think it’s a conventional election where the electorate is mostly people who normally vote, then Hillary wins. But if you think Trump really has pulled off the impossible and gotten millions who don’t normally vote out to vote, well, then Trump wins. But there’s no way you’re going to know until Tuesday. Pollsters will never see these new voters coming.”
The rest is history. The Trump team got to mid-afternoon Election Day and realized places like the
